How To Improve Your Chances Of Winning An NBA Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays in the NBA have become one of the most popular sports bets these days. Players see an opportunity to bet a little and win a lot – if they’re correct with their read on a game. But these types of bets tend to be quite risky. Sportsbooks love to promote and advertise them because they make very good money off of them. Does that mean you should avoid them altogether? That’s not necessarily the case. We’ve put together a list of tips that will help you improve your chances of success these same-gamers.
- Use The Correlation To Your Advantage
- Let Outlier’s Prop Finder Lead The Way
- Don’t Go Crazy With The Amount Of Legs
- Go Across Multiple Days
- Shift The Main Lines To Make Things Easier
Use The Correlation To Your Advantage
For many years, bettors were not able to place any types of parlay bets that were correlated. The entire reason that these types of same-game parlays were not allowed was because anything that even remotely resembled correlation would set off fire alarms for oddsmakers. Nowadays, you’re able to do it because within the same-game parlay calculations, they’ll adjust the odds. That way, they’re happy with the numbers and risk, and you’re permitted to play these bets.
Now that we’re allowed to bet correlated parlays, you should use that correlation to your advantage. For example, if you plan to bet the Los Angeles Lakers to win or cover the spread, then you can loop in LeBron James over for his point total into that parlay. If the Lakers are going to win, it’s likely that James is going to have a good game. That correlation is now working in your favor.
Here’s your THE WARRIORS ARE BACK!!! #SameGameParlay flyer for tonight — GSW over Clips, Curry 30+ pts and 5+ threes, DDV with 10+ pts. Almost 8-to-1 on @FDSportsbook right now. pic.twitter.com/Bzl8jVHuLW
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) March 15, 2023
An example of where there is less correlation is maybe betting on a bench player to go under the number on a steals and assists combo while betting their team to win. In this situation, there is also no correlation to say that if A happens, B is more likely to happen.
Make sure you run through the scenarios and see where that relationships make sense. You might draw connections from the side with player props or the total as well. Either way, use it to your advantage.
Let Outlier’s Prop Finder Lead The Way
NBA player prop research can be a daunting task. On a given night, there might only be a handful of games but the books could be offering thousands of different prop options. From the player to the game to the type of prop (PTS, REB, STL & AST), the sea of possibilities might make you feel like your drowning a little bit.
Luckily, there’s Outlier’s Prop Finder, which helps you find your next bet. Simply log in and head over the “Prop Finder” tab and we’ll bubble up a number of quality player prop options. Our algorithm studies the market, crunches the odds and cross-references the over-unders with recent player performance. That way, we’re present you with props that are more likely to hit.
Whether you want to parlay them together to make a same-gamer or whether you want to use one and parlay it with a side and total, it’s up to you. Just know that our algorithm is doing a lot of the work on those player props, so that you can save time and take advantage of the valuable finds.
Don’t Go Crazy With The Amount Of Legs
If you’ve spent any time with #GamblingTwitter, then you’ve seen the never-ending number of tickets where some player puts $2 on a same-game parlay, has 15 selections and then manages to win millions off his wild bet when everything rings true. Yes, this type of result does happen but it is the vast minority with these bets. Sportsbooks typically tweet these things out to entice you to try. The reality is predicting something crazy like who’ll hit the first basket in the game along with 10 other selections is not likely to come through.
Most people can’t hit an 18-leg parlay and some people forget they placed them and still hit them 😐
— br_betting (@br_betting) January 31, 2023
When playing a same-game parlay in the NBA, make sure you stick to a reasonable number. It’s understandable that a two- or three-gamer that pays a modest amount is not that sexy. At the same time, a cool, calculated two- or three-gamer is exactly how you should be looking at these – if you want to try and make some money. The further you go down the rabbit hole with adding various longshot outcomes, the more likely you are to just kiss your stake goodbye.
Go Across Multiple Days
Many bettors forget that a parlay can span a couple of days. When it comes to football, your parlay doesn’t have to only encompass games on that Sunday as maybe there’s something from the Thursday or Monday game that makes sense to add in. The same goes with NHL and NBA as many books will post the next day’s games early enough where you can mix-in a moneyline or a total if you want. Sure, the NBA same game parlay selections have to come from that same game – that’s obvious – but if you’re trying to build up the payday and you see value on other days, add them in.
Although most bettors look to focus on winning their same-game parlay, having a last leg on a separate day can actually make a lot of sense from a financial standpoint. That’s because if the first legs all come through for you, you’ll now have an opportunity to hedge your bet for that last leg. For example, let’s say your first three legs all hit but the last leg is the Los Angeles Lakers to win on the moneyline for the next day. That means you can now bet on the Lakers opponent the following day to hedge your bet and guarantee yourself a nice profit.
Same-game parlays are from the same game but you’re not limited to just that. You have the freedom to add in other same-game parlays or other selections from other contests all in one. If you’re stretching it out and adding legs, always remember you can use the next day to your advantage.
Shift The Main Lines To Make Things Easier
While most bettors think about the potential payday they can hit with a same-game parlay, the smarter focus should be on winning the bet. One way you can still play a parlay but improve your odds is to shift the spread and total to your favor. Sites like DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM have a litany of options that allow you to choose whatever point spread and total you want to tie into your parlay. If the total is at 225.5, you can probably go as high as under 240 or even 250 at the sportsbooks. Of course, the payday drops the higher you go but you’re also increasing your chances of winning.
The same goes for the spread as you can take a team that’s -10 and probably get them at +10. It’s not something to necessarily brag about on Twitter as it lowers your payday significantly, but you’re bettor off with a small win than a loss of any kind.
If you like a player prop or two and want to extend the bet with a leg or two, but want to do it safely, shifting the mainlines in the alt line market is one smart way to do that.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is an NBA same game parlay?
A same-game parlay is when you take several selections from one NBA game and parlay them together. For example, the parlay might include the Los Angeles Lakers to win, one of their players to register more than 15.5 points and a different player to score the first basket of the game. All three selections are from the same game and all have to come through for you to win your bet.
What types of selections can you put into a same-game parlay?
You can put anything that’s available on the sportsbook’s page for that game. That might be the spread, moneyline, total, player to hit a first basket, first half, first quarter, will the game go to overtime, various player props and much more.
Are there any selections that are not allowed to be used in a same-game parlay?
Unfortunately, you can’t include everything. For example, you can have the Milwaukee Bucks to win the game and Milwaukee -2. Obviously, if they win, they’re quite likely to win by two. If you add your selections to the bet slip, the sportsbook will indicate if something is not allowed before you confirm your bet. You’ll see a message along the lines of “Selections Cannot Be Combined”.