Betting Intelligence Guides

Which Bankroll Management System Is Right For You?

A bankroll management system refers to the thoughtful and consistent allocation of the money you have set aside for sports betting. It involves setting limits on the amount of money you are willing to bet on each game and creating a budget for your overall sports betting activities

Effective bankroll management is crucial for any sports betting strategy as it helps to ensure you are not betting more money than you can afford to lose. It also helps you to avoid making impulsive or emotional bets that could negatively impact your long-term sports betting success.

There are a three key steps every sports bettor should undertake to effectively manage their bankroll:

Set A Budget 

Determine how much money you are willing to allocate to sports betting on a monthly/yearly basis. This is your starting bankroll;

Choose A Bankroll Management System 

Whether you decide to wager the same unit (e.g. $10) every single time you bet or you decide to adopt a variable/progressive bankroll management system like Oscar Grind or Fibonacci systems, find a system that works for you and stick with it. You want to have a system helping to inform your bet amount.

Track Your Bets

Keep a record of your sports bets, including the amount of money you bet, the odds, the outcome, your exact winning percentage, and your total bankroll. This will promote consistent and honest application of your chosen bankroll management system.

This article focuses exclusively on Step 2: Choosing a bankroll management system that is right for you.

Which Bankroll Management System is Right for Your Strategy
Which Bankroll Management System Is Right For You?

Each bankroll management system involves its own set of unique rules and variables. Some systems involve betting a fixed amount on each game or event, while others involve increasing or decreasing your bet based on your performance or the specific circumstances of each game.

Below, we’ll cover the most common bankroll management systems employed by casual sports bettors and professional sports bettors alike, including: Flat betting, Variable Percentage betting, Confidence betting, Potential Return betting, Kelly Criterion betting, d’Alembert betting, Oscar Grind betting, and Fibonnaci betting.

1. Flat Betting System

Flat betting is a bankroll management strategy that involves placing the same amount of money on each bet, regardless of the odds or perceived risk of the bet. This approach is sometimes referred to as “level stakes” betting or a “fixed unit model.”

Applying the Flat Betting System

  • Decide on a base bet: This is the amount you will bet on each game or event. For example, you might decide to start with a base bet of $10.
  • Calculate your bet: Simply use the base bet you have chosen. For example, if your base bet is $10, your bet on each game or prop is simply $10.
  • Repeat the process: Continue to bet the same amount on each game or event until you reach your desired number of bets or until you decide to stop betting.

Why Use the Flat Betting System

The advantage of a flat betting model is that it is simple and easy to understand, and it allows you to place consistent bets without having to constantly adjust your unit size. However, it can also be risky, as it does not take into account the potential return on investment (ROI) of each bet.

For example, if you place a bet on a heavy favorite with low odds, you may win less money than if you had placed the same bet on an underdog with higher odds. This can make it difficult to maximize your profits over the long term.

2. Variable Percentage Betting System

Variable Percentage betting is a bankroll management strategy that involves betting a fixed percentage of your overall bankroll on each bet

Applying the Percentage Betting System

  • Decide on a base bet: This is the percentage of your bankroll that you will bet on each game or event. For example, you might decide to start with a base bet of 5%.
  • Calculate your bet using the base bet: Multiply your base bet by your current bankroll. For example, if your base bet is 5% and your current bankroll is $100, your bet would be 5% x $100 = $5.
  • After a loss, increase your bet by the base bet: If you lose the first bet, your next bet should be the base bet plus your previous bet. For example, if your base bet is 5% and you lose the first bet, your next bet should be 5% + 5% = 10% of your bankroll.
  • After a win, decrease your bet by the base bet: If you win the first bet, your next bet should be the base bet minus your previous bet. For example, if your base bet is 10% and you win the first bet, your next bet should be 10% – 5% = 5% of your bankroll.
  • Repeat the process: Continue to increase your bet by the base bet after a loss and decrease your bet by the base bet after a win until you reach your desired number of bets or until you decide to stop betting.

Why use the Percentage betting system

The advantage of a percentage model bankroll management strategy is that it allows you to adjust your betting amounts based on the size of your bankroll. If your bankroll increases, you can increase the size of your bets, and if it decreases, you can decrease the size of your bets. This can help you to effectively manage your risk and maximize your profits over the long term.

However, it’s important to note that a percentage model bankroll management strategy does not take into account the potential return on investment (ROI) of each bet. This means that you may still be at risk of losing money if you consistently bet on low-odds favorites.

3. Confidence Betting System

Confidence betting is a bankroll management strategy that involves adjusting your unit size based on your confidence in a particular bet. This approach assigns a certain number of units to each bet based on your perceived likelihood of success.

For example, you might assign a higher number of units to a bet that you are confident will win, and a lower number of units to a bet that you are less confident about. This allows you to adjust your risk level based on the perceived risk of each bet.

Applying the Confidence betting system

  • Create a list of games or prop markets: Make a list of all the games or prop markets you want to bet on, along with the odds for each one.
  • Rank your bets based on confidence: For each game or event on your list, assign a confidence level based on how confident you are in the outcome. You can use a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the most confident and 1 being the least confident.
  • Calculate your bets based on confidence: Once you have ranked your bets, you can use your confidence levels to determine the size of your bets. For example, you might decide to bet a larger amount on the games or events you are most confident in and a smaller amount on the ones you are less confident in.

Why use the Confidence betting system

The advantage of a Confidence betting strategy is that it allows you to adjust your risk level based on your perception of the likelihood of success for each bet. This can help you to maximize your profits over the long term by placing larger bets on bets that you are confident will win, and smaller bets on bets that you are less confident about.

However, it’s important to note that a confidence model bankroll management strategy relies on your ability to accurately assess the likelihood of success for each bet. If you consistently overestimate your chances of success, you may end up taking on more risk than you can afford to lose.

4. Potential Return Betting System

Potential Return betting is a bankroll management strategy that involves adjusting your unit size based on the potential return on investment (ROI) of each bet. This approach involves assigning a certain number of units to each bet based on the potential profit that you could earn if the bet is successful.

For example, you might assign a higher number of units to a bet with high odds and a lower potential return, and a lower number of units to a bet with low odds and a higher potential return. This allows you to adjust your risk level based on the potential ROI of each bet.

Applying the Potential Return betting system

  • Determine your base unit size: Decide how much money you want to bet on each game or event.
  • Calculate the potential return for each bet: To calculate the potential return for a bet, multiply your base unit size by the odds for that bet. For example, if you bet $10 on a game with 2.0 odds (+200), your potential return would be $10 x 2.0 = $20.
  • Rank your bets based on potential return: Once you have calculated the potential return for each bet, you can rank your bets based on the amount of money you can expect to win. You might decide to bet a larger amount on the games or events with the highest potential return and a smaller amount on the ones with a lower potential return.

Why use the Potential Return betting system

The advantage of a Potential Return model bankroll management strategy is that it allows you to maximize your profits over the long term by placing larger bets on bets with a higher potential return and smaller bets on bets with a lower potential return.

However, it’s important to note that a potential return model bankroll management strategy does not take into account the perceived risk of each bet. This means that you may still be at risk of losing money if you consistently bet on high-odds underdogs that have a low probability of winning.

5. Kelly Criterion System

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to determine the optimal amount of money to bet on a particular wager based on the perceived probability of winning and the potential return on investment (similar to the Potential Return system).

Applying the Kelly Criterion system:

  • Determine the probability of winning: Calculate the probability of winning the bet based on the odds. For example, if the odds are 2.0 (+200), the probability of winning is 50%.
  • Determine the potential return: Calculate the potential return of the bet by multiplying the size of the bet by the odds. For example, if you bet $10 on a game with odds of 2.0, the potential return is $10 x 2.0 = $20.
  • Calculate the Kelly criterion: To calculate the Kelly criterion, use the following formula: (potential return – 1) / (odds – 1). For example, if the potential return is $20 and the odds are 2.0, the Kelly criterion would be ($20 – 1) / (2.0 – 1) = $19 / 1 = 19%.
  • Calculate the size of the bet: To calculate the size of the bet using the Kelly criterion, multiply your bankroll by the Kelly criterion. For example, if your bankroll is $100 and the Kelly criterion is 19%, your bet should be $100 x 19% = $19.

Why use the Kelly Criterion betting system

It’s important to note that the Kelly Criterion model is a riskier bankroll management strategy than some other approaches, as it involves placing larger bets when the probability of winning is higher and smaller bets when the probability of winning is lower.

6. D’alembert Betting system

The d’Alembert betting system is a negative progression system, which means that the size of the bet is increased after a loss and decreased after a win.

This system is based on the idea that the outcomes of independent events, like the spins of a roulette wheel, will tend to balance out over time. The system is named after French mathematician Jean le Rond d’Alembert, who developed the concept in the 18th century.

Under the d’Alembert model, you start by placing a base bet size on each game. If you win the bet, you reduce your bet size by one unit for your next bet. If you lose the bet, you increase your bet size by one unit for your next bet. This continues until you reach a predetermined maximum or minimum bet size, or until you decide to stop using the d’Alembert model.

Applying the d’Alembert system:

  • Decide on a base bet: This is the amount you will bet on each game or event. For example, you might decide to start with a base bet of $10.
  • Increase your bet by one unit after a loss: If you lose the first bet, your next bet should be one unit higher than your base bet. For example, if your base bet is $10 and you lose the first bet, your next bet should be $10 + $1 = $11 (assuming your unit size is $1).
  • Decrease your bet by one unit after a win: If you win the first bet, your next bet should be one unit lower than your base bet. For example, if your base bet is $10 and you win the first bet, your next bet should be $10 – $1 = $9.
  • Repeat the process: Continue to increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease your bet by one unit after a win until you reach your desired number of bets or until you decide to stop betting.

Why use the d’Alembert betting system

The advantage of the d’Alembert system is that it can help you potentially recover from a losing streak or take some risk off when you’re on a winning streak. However, it’s important to note that this approach does not take into account the specific odds or probability of winning for each bet, and it may not be the best choice for everyone.

7. Oscar Grind Betting System

The Oscar’s Grind betting system is a positive progression system (opposite the d’Alembert system), which means that you increase your bet after a win and decrease your bet after a loss.

The basic idea behind the Oscar’s Grind system is that you can increase your chances of winning by increasing your bet after a win and decreasing your bet after a loss. The system is named after professional gambler Oscar Grind, who developed the concept in the mid-20th century.

Under the Oscar Grind system, you start by placing a base bet size on each game. If you win the bet, you increase your bet size by one unit for your next bet. If you lose the bet, you decrease your bet size by one unit for your next bet.

This continues until you reach a predetermined maximum or minimum bet size, or until you decide to stop using the Oscar Grind system.

Applying the Oscar Grind system:

  • Decide on a base bet: This is the amount you will bet on each game or event. For example, you might decide to start with a base bet of $10.
  • Increase your bet by one unit after a win: If you win the first bet, your next bet should be one unit higher than your base bet. For example, if your base bet is $10 and you win the first bet, your next bet should be $10 + $1 = $11 (assuming your unit size is $1).
  • Decrease your bet by one unit after a loss: If you lose the first bet, your next bet should be one unit lower than your base bet. For example, if your base bet is $10 and you lose the first bet, your next bet should be $10 – $1 = $9.
  • Repeat the process: Continue to increase your bet by one unit after a win and decrease your bet by one unit after a loss until you reach your desired number of bets or until you decide to stop betting.

Why use the Oscar Grind betting system

The advantage of the Oscar Grind system is that it can help you to gradually build up your bankroll over time by minimizing your losses and maximizing your wins. But, just like a’Alembert system the Oscar Grind system does not take into account the specific odds or probability of winning for each bet, and it may not be the best choice for everyone.

8. Fibonacci Betting System

The Fibonacci betting system, just like the d’Alembert model, is a negative progression system, which means that you increase your bet after a loss and decrease your bet after a win.

The basic idea behind the Fibonacci system is that you can increase your chances of winning by following a specific sequence of bets based on the Fibonacci sequence.

Applying the Fibonnaci system:

  • Decide on a base bet: This is the amount you will bet on each game or event. For example, you might decide to start with a base bet of $10.
  • Calculate the next bet using the Fibonacci sequence: The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers. The first two numbers in the sequence are 0 and 1, and the subsequent numbers are calculated by adding the previous two numbers together. For example, the next number in the sequence would be 0 + 1 = 1, and the following number would be 1 + 1 = 2, and so on. Here’s the sequence extended further: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34.
  • Increase your bet to the next number in the Fibonacci sequence after a loss: Every time you lose a bet, move one number up the Fibonacci sequence. Bet this number of units. For example, if your base bet is $8 and you lose the first bet, your next bet should be $13.
  • Decrease your bet by two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence after a win: Every time you win a bet, move two numbers down the sequence. Bet this number of units. For example, if your base bet is $8 and you win the first bet, your next bet should be $3.
  • Repeat the process: Continue to increase your bet by the next number in the Fibonacci sequence after a loss and decrease your bet by the two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence after a win until you reach your desired number of bets or until you decide to stop betting.

Why use the Fibonacci betting system

The advantage of the Fibonacci system is that it can help you to gradually build up your bankroll over time by minimizing your losses and maximizing your wins. However, it’s important to note that this approach does not take into account the specific odds or probability of winning for each bet, and it may not be the best choice for everyone.

To be a successful sports bettor you need to be making informed bets: that doesn’t just mean knowing which games to bet on, but also how to allocate your bankroll.

More than anything, a good bankroll management system is one that fits seamlessly into your long term betting strategy, helps you manage your bankroll whether you have a larger bankroll or a smaller bankroll, and prevents you from betting more money than you can afford to lose.

Even if you don’t plan to be a professional bettor, do to arbitrage or middle betting, proper bankroll management can prevent you from wagering all your money on a single slate of moneyline underdogs.

Whether you choose Flat betting, Variable Percentage betting, Confidence betting, Potential Return betting, Kelly Criterion betting, d’Alembert betting, Oscar Grind betting, or Fibonnaci betting, the key is to choose a bankroll management system and stick with it.

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Outlier Team
February 24, 2023
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