How To Bet On NHL Center Player Props

The NHL has grown in popular in betting circles as more and more player props have become available. While betting the moneylines and totals was more for sharps and hardcore bettors, now the fantasy folks and more casual players get in finding value with player props.

A key member on the ice is the center. Many of the league’s biggest offensive stars are centers, so it’s no surprise that they are a popular choice to wager on. If you’ve been thinking about handicapping NHL center player props, here’s the best betting strategy to execute.

Look For Centers That Dominate Ice Time

One of the first things that you could look for is the player’s Time On Ice statistic as that will give you an indication of opportunity. The more they play, the more they are going to have a chance to record shots, points, goals or other statistics.

While time on ice might seem rudimentary, you need to be thinking about overs on players who get the time and unders for those who don’t. At the very least, that’s where your mind should be going. Of course, there are times when this statistic can be misleading due to defensemen usually spending more time out there than forwards. However, we’re not comparing different position here. We’re looking at centers versus centers for TOI.

The thing with ice time is that teams usually give the most time to their best players at the position. If you’re looking to bet the over on a specific center, then you might want to do so on a top-tier center that is getting a ton of opportunities per game. A player that gets minutes with the top six forwards, then also gets power play time and maybe shorthanded minutes too is someone you want to think about for overs.

The same can be said the other way around. If you want to bet the under on a player, you can check their time on the ice to see if their minutes have decreased in the last few days or weeks. Looking at the hard number isn’t the final say here. What you want to look at is trends. Are minutes staying the same? Are they going up? Are they going down? That’s what tells the story.

Which Line Are They Playing On?

Somewhat tied to time on ice is examining what line the player you’re looking is playing on. For anybody who might not know the difference between the lines in the NHL, it’s fairly easy to follow. The first line is usually what’s known as the top scoring line and coaches prefer to put their best player at each position up front. Or they could put their best combination of players up there together. The line behind that is the secondary scoring line, followed by a checking line, and then the fourth line.

You’re usually going to see players from the top scoring line play the most in each game. You’ll also find out that those players are usually going to get a tremendous amount of scoring opportunities due to the talent they’re playing alongside. It’s not just time on the ice; it’s who that time is spent with. For example, the second line could end up getting equal opportunity if a team has so much depth that they are playing with an equally talented group on the ice. However, the top line usually has better players.

For example, a center like Connor McDavid is going to boost everybody else’s scoring chances when he’s on the ice. If you bet on a player who spends a ton of time alongside him out there, chances are that you can hit the over. After all, McDavid himself registers a ton of points. Just having another player out there helping him get the puck could get their own points up. If you bet on a third liner that doesn’t usually get out there with McDavid, it won’t end up working out as well. It’s always a good idea to see who they play alongside the most frequently.

Knowing a player’s line could make it easy to bet the under as well, with a fourth line center not getting much time on the ice, nor are they getting many chances to score. These players could be sent in for a change of pace, for physicality, for defense, or for garbage time. It’s going to be different each game, but understanding when they enter the game, how much time they’re out there for, and how much they can attack the net would be helpful.

Tracking Opponent Shots Allowed

After you’ve come to a conclusion on the player or team that you’re looking to bet on, you’ve likely figured out what line they play on and how many minutes they get on the ice. Now, it’s time to move on to the next step, which is evaluating who they are going up against.

Evaluating a player’s opponent can be just as important as anything else, as a bad team could allow for a far better scoring opportunity than a stellar defensive group. Checking out the opposing goaltender is an easy place to start. If the opposing goaltender hasn’t performed well in recent days/weeks, then betting the over on a top-liner could be a good idea. If the goaltender has been excellent lately, then going the under might be even easier.

Shots given up is another good statistic to get a determination of scoring opportunity. Some teams give up far more shots on the net than others, and that normally results in more goals allowed. Let’s say that you’re betting the over on a top-liner to score a goal, and they are going up against a team that allows the most shots in the league at the time, you might have a great chance of hitting that wager. The player would get a ton of opportunities to put one into the back of the net.

When a team gives up a ton of shots, betting the over can seem incredibly enticing.

Are They Getting Power Play Time?

Similar to looking at shots allowed, power play time can give a player much more scoring opportunity than ever before. If a player is always out there when his team gets a power play, then there will be minutes at a time when he is on the attack. The power play gives a team a one-man advantage for two/five minutes. Those time frames are usually spent with one team relentlessly attacking the net, taking shot after shot. Meanwhile, the defending power play unit continues to clear the puck and kill time.

Normally, you’ll see star players out there to take advantage of power plays, though there are multiple lines for this. If you’re betting on a center’s props, then taking a look at their time out on the power play can be a great idea. Going back to McDavid, he’s somebody that the Edmonton Oilers will want on the ice whenever they have a one-man advantage. He’s practically already an advantage with even skaters, so putting him out there to just attack for a minute or so with less defense is a great opportunity. Not just for himself, but for the other players on the line with him.

Taking some time to look at a player’s power play points and their total time out there could support your decision to make a player prop. Looking at who they might be playing alongside could help even more, as the scoring chances will be aplenty throughout the powerplay if done correctly. At the very least, your player will end up with a couple of shots on the net.

Check In On Opponents’ Penalty Kill

Just like how you’re going to take a look at one team’s power play, you’re going to need to look at the opposing team’s penalty kill. Just because a team keeps getting power plays, doesn’t always mean that they’re going to capitalize. They might just be going up against the best penalty kill unit in the NHL, which usually doesn’t give up free points just because they’re a man down.

Part of what makes an opponent’s penalty kill so great is their frequency of getting penalties. The Ottawa Senators were penalized 4.74 times per game in 2022-23, and it resulted in them giving up more goals on the power play than they would have liked to give up. A team that was penalized far fewer would be giving up fewer goals, as they’d be more disciplined. A more disciplined team can result in better penalty kill units as well when they eventually face a penalty.

When it comes to getting a good matchup in opposing penalty kill, you are looking for a team that gets penalized an awful lot, and one that can’t defend the power play once they fall into it. A team that struggles to clear the puck, defend the net, or block off scoring lanes. These are usually teams that don’t do well in the standings, though checking the statistics can always be a safer bet than simply assuming a bad team doesn’t have a strong penalty kill unit.

If you’re looking to bet on a center prop, then finding out what type of penalty kill they’re facing could strengthen their chances of scoring. This is especially true if they’re on the top line for their own team’s power play unit.