Explaining How Outlier Gets The Public Betting Percentages
One of the most useful features in the Outlier dashboard is Public Betting Percentages. You can find those when you’re looking at the games on the board for each sport. At the bottom of each matchup, it’ll show you the split on each side, spread and total.
Whether you’re new to sports betting and are just wondering what this means or are a bit more experienced and want to know how Outlier crunches the numbers, we’re here to explain. Let’s start out with the basics:
What Are The Public Betting Percentages?
We have an in-depth article that elaborates on this number and what it means, but we’ll do an abridged version here.
In short, this shows you the money split on each game. It tells you what the public is betting on. In general, the assumption is that the public often loses (more often than not) and the house often wins (more often than not). Knowing which side the public is on and betting against it can help. Or even if you don’t bet against it, knowing that might deter you from betting and save you from being on the wrong side.
🔘3u Phoenix Suns -4☀️
Down 0-2 in the series heading back home to play game 1, I expect the Suns to win this game by around 7-15 points
— Express Bets🚂 (@bets_express) May 5, 2023
The more you bet on sports, the more you’ll find that this is common jargon. “Where’s the money on the Packers game?” or “everyone is on the Patriots, I’m going to avoid them this week” are the types of conversations you’ll hear in relation to public betting percentages. Ideally, you’re either on the same side as the house or the sharp sports bettors.
How Does Outlier Compile These Numbers?
Outlier coordinates with the only the most respected, regulated sportsbooks in the United States to compile the public betting percentages. For the time being, that includes DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel and Caesars.
The reason Outlier gets the numbers from four separate books and not just one is because the averages help present a better picture. They smooth out any oddities or anomalies. For example, let’s say that Caesars had a ton of action on one side of the game but the other three sportsbooks had the opposite action. If Caesars was the only book we reported on, it could paint a very different picture.
An aberration in the numbers isn’t uncommon if a sportsbook is only operating on a few states. If a company is only operating in Ohio, they are likely to have elevated levels of action on the Cleveland Guardians and Cleveland Cavaliers than the rest of the country. By averaging out the statistics, a more complete data set can be presented.
“When we were building out the model, we had our own vision in mind but we also consulted customers, professional bettors and the sportsbooks to get a wide range of opinions,” said Evan Kirkham, CEO of Outlier. “The consensus was that players found a consensus of action across several sites more accurate and more useful to their decision making”.
For every second of every day for every game, the numbers are constantly being pulled directly from the sportsbooks and then compiled to provide the latest percentages. For every matchup, you’ll see two numbers: the percentage of bets and the percentage of money. It’s important to differentiate the difference because some places just report the number of bets. However, what if there are 10 bets on one side and 90 on the other, but the 10 bets are all $15,000 apiece while the other 90 are all bets of $100 or less? By separating the two categories, bettors can see each specific category.
More Sportsbook To Come
As of now, the four aforementioned sportsbooks are the ones in the model but expect more to come in the future. The goal is to include more of the major shops that operate across several states.
“As some of the other sportsbooks continue to enter new markets and soak up more market share, we’ll continue to build the relationships to access their to-the-moment betting data and incorporate them into our money model,” says Kirkham.
That means that over time, as sports betting continues to grow in the United States, this model will become an even more useful resource to Outlier customers.