Outlier
Start betting
NFL/2026/Team Previews

The Defense is Back to Dominate. Will the Offense Follow?

The Texans have Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to anchor an elite defense, but protecting C.J. Stroud remains the major question heading into 2026.

Headshot of Brian Wright.
Brian Wright
exans quarterback C.J. Stroud holds a football while speaking with head coach DeMeco Ryans on the sideline
C.J. Stroud talks with Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans during a game

At a glance

The Houston Texans enter 2026 with a defense capable of carrying them to the Super Bowl, but their ceiling depends on whether a rebuilt offensive line can protect C.J. Stroud and help the offense become more reliable.

Key takeaways

  • Houston went 12-5 in 2025 and reached the divisional round for a third straight season.
  • The Texans rebuilt the offensive line with Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, Evan Brown and first-round rookie Keylan Rutledge.
  • David Montgomery joins the backfield after arriving in a trade with Detroit.
  • C.J. Stroud’s protection and decision-making are the biggest factors for Houston’s 2026 ceiling.
  • The preview predicts another 12-5 season, an AFC South title and home-field advantage.

Season Outlook:

For the third straight year, the Texans reached the divisional round. This came after a 12-5 record and first-ever road playoff victory. Houston was elevated by a group that allowed the fewest yards, but four interceptions from C.J. Stroud were costly in Houston’s season-ending loss at New England. Head coach DeMeco Ryans brings back his key contributors on defense. The Texans just need the offense to follow suit.

What's Changed:

Houston made its biggest adjustments along the offensive line – trading away longtime starter Tytus Howard, signed free agents Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller, then handed the starting left guard job to rookie first-rounder Keylan Rutledge. There’s also a new face in the backfield, as a trade with the Lions brought in running back David Montgomery to fill in for the departed Nick Chubb.

Bigger Role & Sophomore Breakout:

A training camp injury to Jayden Higgins has an effect on two members of the receiving group. The Texans reacted to the Higgins news and traded with the Patriots for Kayshon Boutte, who will jump in and be a heavy-target option for Stroud in addition to Nico Collins. Last year’s third-round pick Jaylin Noel was mainly used on special teams as a returner, but that should change now that Higgins is out and Christian Kirk left for the 49ers.

Key Question: Is the offensive line fixed?

This was the biggest problem area for the Texans in 2025 and likely contributed to Stroud’s struggles. When he’s gotten good protection during his pro career, Stroud has a QBR of 66. When under pressure, it’s 27. Montgomery and Woody Marks will certainly also benefit if newcomers like center Evan Brown and the rookie Rutledge help form a reliable group.

Prediction:

Houston can reach the Super Bowl. In another 12-5 season, the Texans win the AFC South plus get home-field advantage. Defensively, five starters are All-Pros. Will Anderson Jr. benefits most from this talented unit and is Defensive Player of the Year. C.J. Stroud does less to hurt Houston and enough to keep the offense steady. With an improved line, the fourth-year QB more resembles the player that impressed in his rookie year. It’s just a matter of whether this can continue deep into January. Maybe even in February.

X-Factor:

C.J. Stroud doesn’t need to be great – just avoid the mistakes that burned them in big games. It’s possible, and it could be proven over the course of this season, that the line in front of him in 2025 affected his play. This year’s rebuilt unit includes a rookie starting guard and two solid free-agent signings. His running back and receivers have been upgraded. It’s his time to prove it.

Final Scorecard:

  • Offense: 6
  • Defense: 9
  • Coaching: 7
  • X-Factor Upside: 8
  • Schedule Strength: 6

Frequently asked questions

What is the Houston Texans' outlook for the 2026 season?

Houston enters 2026 as a Super Bowl contender because of an elite defense, but the offense must improve for the Texans to take the next step.

What changed for the Texans entering 2026?

Houston made major changes along the offensive line, traded away Tytus Howard, added Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller, and brought in David Montgomery at running back.

What is the biggest question for the Texans in 2026?

The biggest question is whether Houston has finally fixed its offensive line and can consistently protect C.J. Stroud.

Who is the Texans' X-factor in 2026?

C.J. Stroud is the X-factor. Houston does not need him to be spectacular, but it does need him to avoid the costly mistakes that hurt the team in big games.

What record does this preview predict for the Texans in 2026?

The preview predicts Houston will finish 12-5, win the AFC South and earn home-field advantage.